What will Happen with Europe?

The concept of a “European Century” has moved from a theoretical academic debate to a central geopolitical question in 2026. As the United States adopts an increasingly isolationist and transactional “America First” posture, the European Union (EU) finds itself at a historical crossroads.

Whether the EU can replace the US as the world’s foremost superpower depends on how it manages three distinct pillars: economic leverage, military independence, and ethical leadership.

1. The Greenland Issue: A Catalyst for European Unity

The recent escalation surrounding Greenland has become a defining “Suez Moment” for the 21st century. President Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on European allies unless Denmark agrees to “sell” Greenland has fundamentally altered the transatlantic relationship.

• Compromising US Power: By using trade weapons to pursue territorial acquisition—a practice largely abandoned by Western powers after WWII—the US is seen by many global observers as a “rogue” superpower. This has eroded the “soft power” that once made American leadership palatable to its allies.
• The European Response: Rather than buckling, the EU has activated its Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI). For the first time, the 27 member states are treating a threat against one (Denmark) as a threat against all. This unity is projecting the EU as the new “defender of sovereignty” in the West, filling a moral vacuum left by the US.

2. Military Autonomy: Moving Beyond the US Umbrella

For decades, Europe relied on the US security guarantee via NATO. However, two crises have made “Strategic Autonomy” an unavoidable necessity:

• The Ukrainian Conflict: With US support for Kyiv becoming more conditional and tied to European concessions on other fronts, the EU has been forced to take the lead. In 2026, the EU’s multi-billion euro defense packages are no longer just financial aid; they are driving the creation of a unified European defense industrial base.
• Defending the High North: The Greenland dispute has shown Europe that the Arctic is a potential flashpoint not just with Russia, but with an unpredictable US. This is forcing the development of “Rapid Deployment Capacities” that operate independently of US command structures. While Europe still lags behind in raw military hardware (like heavy lift and satellite intelligence), the intent to defend itself is at an all-time high.

3. The “Brussels Effect” vs. The “Bully Pulpit”

Economically and ethically, the EU is already arguably the world’s “Regulatory Superpower.”

• Ethics: As the US moves away from global climate commitments and multilateralism, the EU has become the primary standard-setter for the Green Deal, AI ethics, and human rights. In a world looking for stability, the EU’s “Social Market Economy” is seen as a more sustainable model than the volatile, tariff-driven capitalism currently emerging from Washington.
• The Power of the Commission: Is the President of the European Commission more powerful than the US President? In terms of unilateral executive power, no—the US President controls the world’s largest military. However, in terms of long-term global influence, the Commission President now leads the world’s largest integrated trade bloc. When the Commission sets a standard, the world follows.

Conclusion: A New Superpower?

The EU is unlikely to replace the US as a traditional military “hegemon” that polices every corner of the globe. Instead, we are seeing the rise of a “Normative Superpower.” If the US continues to treat allies as competitors and territory as a commodity, the world will naturally gravitate toward the EU as the more reliable, ethical, and predictable leader of the Western world.

The Greenland issue may not “destroy” American power, but it has certainly catalyzed the end of European dependence.